Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald U. Mendoza Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Mendoza Author-Workplace-Name: UNICEF Division of Policy and Practice, Social Policy and Economic Analysis Unit Author-Name: Ryan Jones Author-X-Name-First: Ryan Author-X-Name-Last: Jones Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics, International Political Economy and Development (IPED) Program Author-Name: Gabriel Vergara Author-X-Name-First: Gabriel Author-X-Name-Last: Vergara Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics, International Political Economy and Development (IPED) Program Title: Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA Abstract: Analyzing US economic and foreign aid data from 1967 to 2007, this paper investigates whether adverse economic and financial conditions are negatively linked to official development assistance (ODA). It finds empirical evidence that US ODA has tended to decline as its economic conditions worsen. A 1 unit increase in the misery index (sum of inflation and unemployment) is associated with a roughly 0.01 percentage point decline in US ODA expressed as a share of GNI. Furthermore, an increase in financial volatility from 1 percent to 2 percent (measured by the standard deviation of the rate of return of the S&P500) is associated with a decrease in US ODA by about $2.78 billion. Informed by the empirical results in this paper, and based on very rough guesstimates, a potential decline in US ODA of anywhere from 13 to 30 percent could occur depending on the severity of the economic conditions in 2009. This predicted decline in ODA is much lower than some of the guesstimates so far by different analysts. Based on the US historical pattern, ODA is indeed at risk; nevertheless, it need not decline significantly during adverse economic times. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_01_mendoza_jones_vergara.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: F35, G01, O10 Keywords: ODA, foreign aid, financial crisis, misery index Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kurt A. Jetta Author-X-Name-First: Kurt Author-X-Name-Last: Jetta Author-Workplace-Name: TABS Group Author-Name: Erick W. Rengifo Author-X-Name-First: Erick Author-X-Name-Last: Rengifo Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: Improved Baseline Sales Abstract: This paper develops a more accurate and robust baseline sales (sales in the absence of price promotion) using Dynamic Linear Models and a Multiple Structural Change Model (DLM/MSCM). We first discuss the value of utilizing aggregated (chain-level) vs. disaggregated (store-level) point-of-sale (POS) data to estimate baseline sales and measure promotional effectiveness. We then discuss the practical advantage of the DLM/MSCM modeling approach using aggregated data, and we propose two tests to determine the superiority of a particular baseline estimate: the minimization of weekly sales volatility and the existence of no correlation with promotional activities in these estimates. Finally, we test this baseline against the industry standard ones on the two measures of performance. Our tests find the DLM/MSCM baseline sales to be superior to the existing log-linear models by reducing the weekly baseline sales volatility by over 80% and by being uncorrelated to promotional activities. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_02_jetta_rengifo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Dynamic linear Models, Multiple Structural Change Model, Consumer Packaged Goods, Marketing, Sales, Promotions. Baseline Sales. Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Subha Mani Author-X-Name-First: Subha Author-X-Name-Last: Mani Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: John Hoddinott Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Hoddinott Author-Workplace-Name: International Food Policy Research Institute Author-Name: John Strauss Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Strauss Author-Workplace-Name: University of Southern California, Department of Economics Title: Determinants of Schooling Outcomes: Empirical Evidence from Rural Ethiopia Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of schooling outcomes - current enrollment status and relative grade attainment - among primary school children in rural Ethiopia. We use repeated cross-sectional data from 15 rural villages in Ethiopia to capture the impact of the changing socioeconomic environment on these outcomes between 1994 and 2004. We find that parental schooling is positively associated with schooling enrollment but its estimated effects declines over time. We observe a similar decline in the estimated impact of father's schooling on relative grade attainment, while the impact of mother's schooling increased during this period. OLS estimates of the impact of household income are biased downwards relative to IV results. Community characteristics are not associated with schooling enrollment. However, the provision of electricity is positively, and distance to primary school negatively, associated with relative grade attainment. These findings suggest that policies that address both supply and demand side constraints have the potential to improve the low levels of schooling attainments found in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_03_mani_hoddinott_strauss.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Silvio Contessi Author-X-Name-First: Silvio Author-X-Name-Last: Contessi Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Author-Name: Johanna Francis Author-X-Name-First: Johanna Author-X-Name-Last: Francis Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: U.S. Commercial Bank Lending through 2008:Q4: New Evidence from Gross Credit Flows Abstract: What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_04_contessi_francis.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: E44, E51, G21 Keywords: Credit Market, Reallocation, Aggregate Restructuring, Business Cycle, Financial crisis Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Silvio Contessi Author-X-Name-First: Silvio Author-X-Name-Last: Contessi Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Author-Name: Pierangelo De Pace Author-X-Name-First: Pierangelo Author-X-Name-Last: De Pace Author-Workplace-Name: Johns Hopkins University Author-Name: Johanna Francis Author-X-Name-First: Johanna Author-X-Name-Last: Francis Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows Abstract: We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship to business cycle variables for 22 industrial and emerging countries. Inward flows are procyclical. Outward and net flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries, except for the G7. Results for individual flows are ambiguous except for inward FDI flows that are procyclical in industrial countries, but countercyclical in emerging countries. Using formal statistical tests, we find mixed evidence of changes in the covariance and correlation of capital flows with a set of macroeconomic variables in the G7 countries. We detect significant increases in the variance of all flows. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_05_contessi_depace_francis.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: E32, F21, F32, F36 Keywords: Capital Flows, International Business Cycles, Second Moments Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ralf Hepp Author-X-Name-First: Ralf Author-X-Name-Last: Hepp Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: Jürgen von Hagen Author-X-Name-First: Jürgen Author-X-Name-Last: von Hagen Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bonn, Indiana University, and CEPR Title: Fiscal Federalism in Germany: Stabilization and Redistribution Before and After Unification Abstract: We provide empirical estimates of the risk-sharing and redistributive properties of the German federal fiscal system based on data from 1970 until 2006, with special attention to the effects of German unification. We find that tax revenue sharing between the states and the federal government and the fiscal equalization mechanism (Länderfinanzausgleich) together reduce differences in per-capita state incomes by 36.9 percent during period 1970 to 1994. After the full integration of East German states into the mechanism in 1995, the redistributive effects increase slightly to about 38.6 percent. With respect to the insurance effect of the German fiscal system, our results indicate that the federal fiscal system offsets 47 percent of an asymmetric shock to state per-capita incomes. This effect has significantly decreased after the inclusion of the East German states in 1995. Furthermore, we find that the German fiscal system provides almost perfect insurance for state government budgets against asymmetric revenue shocks; also, its redistributive effect with regard to the tax resources available to state governments is very strong. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_06_hepp_vonhagen.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: H77, E63, F42 Keywords: Regional Risk-sharing, Fiscal Federalism, Monetary Union Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Troy Tassier Author-X-Name-First: Troy Author-X-Name-Last: Tassier Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: Phillip Polgreen Author-X-Name-First: Phillip Author-X-Name-Last: Polgreen Author-Workplace-Name: University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine Author-Name: Alberto Segre Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Segre Author-Workplace-Name: University of Iowa, Department of Computer Science Title: Targeted Vaccine Subsidies for Healthcare Workers Abstract: We study the public goods problem associated with vaccinations. The externality created by an infection is composed of two parts, the probability of infection and the marginal infections generated if infected. We argue that the key component in a successful vaccination strategy is the second of these items but that current public policy focuses on the first. We use a newly collected data set coupled with agent-based simulations to study the spread of influenza and other infectious diseases in hospitals. We estimate the marginal infections created by various worker groups in a hospital in order to prioritize vaccine allocations across different healthcare worker groups in times of vaccine shortages. One primary focus of this paper is identifying the individual hospital workers who are most important to vaccinate. Surprisingly, we find that many groups with patient care responsibilities, such as physicians, play a small role in spreading influenza while others, such as unit clerks, play a much larger role. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_07_tassier_polgreen_segre.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Influenza vaccine, social networks, vaccine subsidies Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Sophie Mitra Author-X-Name-First: Sophie Author-X-Name-Last: Mitra Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: Disability Cash Transfers in the Context of Poverty and Unemployment: the Case of South Africa Abstract: South Africa's Disability Grant program has been widely criticized for its poor administration and the dependency culture it promotes. This paper attempts to assess the Disability Grant program's targeting effectiveness and its effects on labor market behaviors. Using disability self reports and standard measures of economic well being, results suggest that the Disability Grant is relatively well targeted. Exclusion and inclusion errors are substantial but are comparable to those found in developed countries' disability programs. Increased leniency in disability screening in the program in selected provinces does not appear to have altered labor market behaviors between 2001 and 2003. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_08_mitra.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Cash transfers, disability, targeting, labor supply, Africa, South Africa Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Subha Mani Author-X-Name-First: Subha Author-X-Name-Last: Mani Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: John Hoddinott Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Hoddinott Author-Workplace-Name: International Food Policy Research Institute Author-Name: John Strauss Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Strauss Author-Workplace-Name: University of Southern California, Department of Economics Title: Long-Term Impact of Investments in Early Schooling – Empirical Evidence from Rural Ethiopia Abstract: This paper identifies the cumulative impact of early schooling investments on later schooling outcomes in a developing country context using enrollment status and relative grade attainment as short-run and long-run measures of schooling. Using a child-level longitudinal data set from rural Ethiopia, we estimate a dynamic conditional schooling demand function where the coefficient estimate on the lagged dependent variable captures the impact of all previous periods schooling inputs and resources. We find that this lagged dependent variable indicates a strong positive association between current and lagged schooling. Past history matters more for girls than boys and for children from higher income households compared to the poor. Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2009_09_mani_hoddinott_strauss.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2009-09