Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gonzalo Duenas Alvarez Author-X-Name-First: Gonzalo Duenas Author-X-Name-Last: Alvarez Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University Author-Name: Mary Tran Author-X-Name-First: Mary Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Workplace-Name: New York University Author-Name: Raj Raina Author-X-Name-First: Raj Author-X-Name-Last: Raina Author-Workplace-Name: Columbia University Title: MDGs: Sub-Saharan Africa: Overcoming Data Gaps and Ranking Progress Abstract: Creation-Date: 2011 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2011_01_alvarez_tran_raina.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2011-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Baybars Karacaovali Author-X-Name-First: Baybars Author-X-Name-Last: Karacaovali Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: Turkey: Temporary Trade Barriers as Resistance to Trade Liberalisation with the European Union? Abstract: Turkey has been an active user of antidumping since the 1990s and more recently added safeguards and countervailing duties to its temporary trade barriers (TTBs). Turkey is a founding member of the World Trade Organization and formed a customs union with the European Union (EU) in 1996. It has also signed numerous preferential trade agreements the EU has been involved in as part of its EU candidacy. The drastic intra and extra-group trade liberalisation brought by the relations with the EU seems to be important determinants in the rise of Turkey's contingent protection over the last decade. Moreover, apart from an increase in the number of initiations, the higher rate of initiations finding support and sluggishness in the removal of TTBs over time appear to have played a role in their build-up. Turkey has been significantly affected by the 2008-9 global economic crisis and at the same time kept increasing the use of TTBs. The increase as of 2009 was in line with the recent upward trend but the response to the crisis may come with a lag. In general, Turkey does not target established EU members with TTBs although there is no restriction. Turkey mainly targets developing countries, especially China, at rates disproportional to their import market share. Creation-Date: 2011 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2011_02_karacaovali.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: F13, F14, F15 Keywords: Temporary trade barriers, antidumping, safeguards, countervailing duties, Turkey Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2011-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Baybars Karacaovali Author-X-Name-First: Baybars Author-X-Name-Last: Karacaovali Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Title: Trade Policy Determinants and Trade Reform in a Developing Country Abstract: In this paper, I start out with a standard political economy of trade policy model to measure the determinants of trade policy in a developing country. I carefully test the model empirically with Colombian data from 1983 to 1998 accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable bias concerns and then expand it in several directions.. I show that it is important to control for the impact of a drastic trade reform shock that affects all sectors and disentangle its effect from preferential trade agreements (PTAs). I find that protection is higher in sectors that are important exports for preferential partners which may be seen as a stumbling effect of PTAs for Colombia. I also relax the assumption of fixed political weights that measure the extra importance of producers' welfare relative to consumers in the government objective. I measure the impact of sectoral characteristics on tariffs indirectly through political weights as a novel alternative to nonstructurally estimating them as determinants of protection. Accordingly, I obtain more realistic estimates for the political weights further contributing to the literature. Creation-Date: 2011 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2011_03_karacaovali.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: F13, F14, F15 Keywords: Political economy of trade policy, trade liberalization, preferential trade agreements, empirical trade Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2011-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Darryl McLeod Author-X-Name-First: Darryl Author-X-Name-Last: McLeod Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: Elitza Mileva Author-X-Name-First: Elitza Author-X-Name-Last: Mileva Author-Workplace-Name: European Central Bank Title: Real Exchange Rates and Growth Surges Abstract: Maintaining a weak real exchange rate is a widely recommended growth strategy, in part because of the success of Asian exporters, most recently China. Simulations of a simple two-sector open economy growth model based on Matsuyama (1992) suggest that a weaker real exchange rate can lead to a "growth surge", as workers move into traded goods industries with more "learning by doing" and exit non-traded goods sectors with slower productivity growth. Using the updated total factor productivity (TFP) estimates from Bosworth and Collins (2003) we test this model in a panel of 58 countries. We find the anticipated non-linear relationship between the real exchange rate and TFP growth: beyond a certain point real currency depreciation reduces TFP and GDP growth. Manufacturing exports appear to be one channel via which the real exchange rate affects TFP growth. Fears that a weaker real exchange rate might reduce investment and therefore productivity growth by making imported equipment more expensive are not supported by our estimates. Creation-Date: 2011 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2011_04_mcleod_mileva.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: O14, O41, O47, O57 Keywords: Economic growth, total factor productivity growth, exchange rate policy Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2011-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Sophie Mitra Author-X-Name-First: Sophie Author-X-Name-Last: Mitra Author-Workplace-Name: Fordham University, Department of Economics Author-Name: Jean-Marc Boussard Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Boussard Author-Workplace-Name: Académie d'Agriculture de France Title: A Simple Model of Endogenous Agricultural Commodity Price Fluctuations with Storage Abstract: A debate has been raging for centuries regarding the effects of inter-annual storage on commodity prices. Most analysts consider storage to function as a price stabilizer, while others place it at the core of an explanation of intriguing features of commodity price series, such as skewed distributions. Most studies have been developed in the context of the theory of competitive storage where random shocks affect supply or demand. Recently, the endogenous chaotic behavior of markets has become another possible hypothesis regarding the origin of commodity price fluctuations. We develop a nonlinear cobweb model with intra- and inter-annual storage, risk averse agents and adaptive expectations. Like the theory of competitive storage, this nonlinear cobweb model with storage can reproduce some of the stylized facts of agricultural commodity prices (autocorrelation of first rank, low kurtosis and skewness). In addition, the effects of storage on price variation are mixed. In the presence of inter-annual storage, chaotic price series show less variation compared to a situation without inter-annual storage but we find that storage contributes to the endogenous volatility of prices by making chaotic dynamics more likely. Creation-Date: 2011 File-URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2011_05_mitra_boussard.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Classification-JEL: Q11, E39, D84 Keywords: Agricultural Prices; Nonlinear Cobweb Model; Endogenous Fluctuations; Storage Handle: RePEc:FRD:wpaper:DP2011-05